The President has been taking quite a hit for unemployment figures. Personally, I don’t understand the frame of mind that thinks that it is the President’s responsibility to provide jobs. Yes, the President has influence over the economy, but he is only one of a number of factors. And it is the state of the economy that directly affects unemployment. Unless you work in the White House, there is no direct link between the President of the United States and your job. (Even as I write this, though, I am listening to a Democratic candidate on NPR saying that it is “the President’s job to put Americans back to work!” Really? Point to that in the Constitution…)

O.K. You feel strongly about unemployment. People worry about their jobs and the economy. So, are we really in a “jobless recovery”? Let’s look at the unemployment statistics for the last 34 years…

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea1.txt

I made this nice chart. I like to look at pictures.

Notice the periodic spikes. Unemployment, because it follows the economy, is cyclical. But what I would primarily like to point out is that unemployment is high only if your memory that doesn’t extend back past 1995. And since we, in 2004, stand at 5.8%, it could be argued that we are past the spike. “Jobless recovery?” Just the opposite. This looks to me like we were able to weather a cyclical recession with the least effect on unemployment for the last 30 years. Not bad for a trend whose start coincided with 9/11.

I started this exercise because I remember that for years we were hoping to get unemployment down to 5%. Because it was assumed that a certain number of people at any one time are between jobs and some don’t work at all, 5% was considered “statistical zero”. Therefore I couldn’t figure out why people were outraged over an unemployment rate of 5.8%. But the formula for calculating unemployment was changed during the Clinton administration, so I don’t know if that is still true.

Alright, enough. I know I’m boring you. Sorry if you were looking for funny today. Try the Archive.